{"id":129,"date":"2024-09-11T15:24:42","date_gmt":"2024-09-11T07:24:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/jefs.ch\/?p=129"},"modified":"2025-03-11T16:23:10","modified_gmt":"2025-03-11T08:23:10","slug":"%e5%a4%a7%e6%95%b8%e6%93%9a%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90%ef%bc%9a%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e7%b8%bd%e7%b5%b1%e5%80%99%e9%81%b8%e4%ba%ba%e5%93%88%e9%87%8c%e6%96%af%e7%82%ba%e4%bd%95%e5%88%bb%e6%84%8f%e5%9b%9e%e9%81%bf","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/jefs.ch\/?p=129","title":{"rendered":"\u5927\u6578\u64da\u5206\u6790\uff1a\u7f8e\u570b\u7e3d\u7d71\u5019\u9078\u4eba\u54c8\u91cc\u65af\u70ba\u4f55\u523b\u610f\u56de\u907f\u4e2d\u7f8e\u95dc\u4fc2\uff1fBig Data Analysis: Why Does U.S. Presidential Candidate Harris Deliberately Avoid U.S.-China Relations?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"http:\/\/jefs.ch\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/harris-1-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-137\" srcset=\"http:\/\/jefs.ch\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/harris-1-1024x576.jpg 1024w, http:\/\/jefs.ch\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/harris-1-300x169.jpg 300w, http:\/\/jefs.ch\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/harris-1-768x432.jpg 768w, http:\/\/jefs.ch\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/harris-1-1536x864.jpg 1536w, http:\/\/jefs.ch\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/harris-1.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p 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class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5728\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u4e5f\u767c\u73fe\uff0c\u5728\u54c8\u91cc\u65af\u6700\u71b1\u9580\u7684\u524d50\u689d\u63a8\u6587\uff08\u6839\u64da\u9ede\u8d0a\u3001\u8f49\u767c\u548c\u8a55\u8ad6\u6578\u7684\u7d9c\u5408\u8861\u91cf\uff09\u7576\u4e2d\uff0c\u95dc\u65bc\u7d93\u6fdf\u5fa9\u8607\u8207\u4eba\u6c11\u798f\u7949\uff08Economic recovery and people&#8217;s well-being\uff09\u7684\u8a71\u984c\u88ab\u983b\u7e41\u63d0\u53ca\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8af8\u5982\u300cWork\u300d 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class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6211\u5011\u5728\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u9084\u767c\u73fe\uff0c\u54c8\u91cc\u65af\u63a8\u6587\u7684\u56de\u5fa9\u4e2d\uff0c\u5973\u6027\u7528\u6236\u4f54\u6bd4\u70ba32%\uff0c\u9ad8\u65bc\u7e3d\u7d71\u62dc\u767b\u63a8\u6587\u56de\u5fa9\u4e2d\u7684\u5973\u6027\u4f54\u6bd429%\u3002\u9019\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u4f5c\u70ba\u5973\u6027\u5019\u9078\u4eba\uff0c\u54c8\u91cc\u65af\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u66f4\u80fd\u5438\u5f15\u5973\u6027\u9078\u6c11\u7684\u95dc\u6ce8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u70ba\u964d\u4f4e\u7db2\u6c11\u5c0d\u5979\u9ad8\u905434.6%\u7684\u8ca0\u9762\u60c5\u7dd2\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u767c\u73fe\u54c8\u91cc\u65af\u8fd1\u671f\u983b\u7e41\u5728\u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u9ad4\u4e2d\u4f7f\u7528Freedom\uff08119\u6b21\uff09\u3001 Women\uff08101\u6b21\uff09\u3001Reproductive Freedom\uff0891\u6b21\uff09\u6b64\u985e\u4e3b\u8981\u570d\u7e5e\u9078\u6c11\u81ea\u7531\u3001\u5065\u5eb7\u8207\u6b0a\u5229\u4fdd\u8b77\u7b49\u6709\u5229\u65bc\u8a0e\u597d\u9078\u6c11\u7684\u95dc\u9375\u8a5e\u3002\u5728\u5979\u7684\u63a8\u6587\u4e2d\uff0c\u54c8\u91cc\u65af\u9084\u5e38\u4ee5\u5973\u6027\u7684\u8996\u89d2\u9032\u884c\u547c\u7c72\uff0c\u5982\u5728\u51767\u670829\u65e5\u7684\u63a8\u6587\u4e2d\u66fe\u516c\u958b\u62a8\u64ca\u524d\u7e3d\u7d71\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u7981\u4ee4\uff0c\u4e26\u627f\u8afe\uff1a\u300c\u73fe\u5728\uff0c\u8d85\u904e\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u751f\u80b2\u5e74\u9f61\u5973\u6027\u751f\u6d3b\u5728\u6709\u7279\u6717\u666e\u58ae\u80ce\u7981\u4ee4\u7684\u5dde\u3002\u7576\u6211\u6210\u70ba\u7f8e\u570b\u7e3d\u7d71\u6642\uff0c\u6211\u5c07\u7c3d\u7f72\u4e00\u9805\u6cd5\u5f8b\uff0c\u6062\u5fa9\u548c\u4fdd\u8b77\u6bcf\u500b\u5dde\u7684\u751f\u6b96\u81ea\u7531\u3002\u300d\u54c8\u91cc\u65af\u591a\u6b21\u8868\u9054\u5c0d\u4fdd\u8b77\u5973\u6027\u751f\u6b96\u6b0a\u5229\u7684\u7acb\u5834\uff0c\u4e26\u6279\u8a55\u65e2\u5f80\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u9019\u4e9b\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u5979\u547c\u7c72\u7acb\u6cd5\u4f86\u6062\u5fa9\u548c\u4fdd\u8b77\u9019\u4e9b\u6b0a\u5229\uff0c\u9019\u986f\u793a\u51fa\u5979\u8a66\u5716\u5c07\u81ea\u5df1\u5b9a\u4f4d\u70ba\u5973\u6027\u81ea\u7531\u548c\u6b0a\u5229\u7684\u634d\u885b\u8005\uff0c\u4ee5\u6b64\u7372\u53d6\u66f4\u591a\u5973\u9078\u6c11\u7684\u652f\u6301\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6d77\u5357\u5927\u5b78\u4e00\u5e36\u4e00\u8def\u7814\u7a76\u9662<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The analysis of social media related to Kamala Harris, the current Vice President of the United States and the Democratic presidential candidate, was conducted through big data and artificial intelligence models. Over the past year, approximately 8.7 million relevant pieces of information were analyzed, revealing that Harris has intentionally adopted a low-profile approach to the currently heated issue of U.S.-China relations. She has proposed a macroeconomic policy termed &#8220;opportunity economy,&#8221; aiming to support the American middle class and revitalize the economy. This move may suggest that, if elected in the future, she will not open new fronts with China in the economic and trade sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Currently, negative sentiment toward Harris among internet users accounts for 34.6%, significantly higher than the 10.8% of positive sentiment. To reverse this situation, Harris, as a female candidate, intends to explore topics that are of greater concern to female voters on social media, hoping to gain more goodwill and support from them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Harris took over from Biden midway through the term and was nominated as the Democratic candidate on August 5, 2024, to represent the Democratic Party in the U.S. presidential election scheduled for this November. As she hurriedly joined the presidential race, if she successfully becomes the next President of the United States, what measures might she take regarding China? To address this, we conducted a quantitative analysis by mining tweets related to Harris on social media platform X (formerly known as Twitter) from August 21, 2023, to August 20, 2024. We employed data models, along with artificial intelligence models such as machine learning and sentiment analysis, to study and predict her relevant policy ideas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">First, we selected Harris&#8217;s two official accounts on social media X, @KamalaHarris and @VP, as our research targets. From August 21, 2023, to August 20, 2024, Harris posted a total of 2,744 tweets, averaging 7.5 tweets per day, with overall daily posting numbers showing little fluctuation. Even after President Biden announced he would not seek re-election on July 21, 2024, the number of Harris&#8217;s tweets did not show significant changes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From the number of replies to tweets, there were over 8.64 million replies from August 21, 2023, to August 20, 2024. Notably, since July 21 of this year, the volume of tweet replies has significantly increased, indicating that many voters have begun to pay attention to Harris&#8217;s Twitter account following Biden&#8217;s announcement not to seek re-election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Surprisingly, among the 2,744 tweets posted by Harris, very few directly addressed China. Even though internet users have attempted to &#8220;guide&#8221; her into discussing the hot topic of U.S.-China relations and hoped she would make statements regarding China, Harris has still chosen to take a low-profile approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We analyze that there are at least two factors contributing to this situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">First, Harris needs to be &#8220;invisible.&#8221; As the Vice President of the United States, as long as President Biden can perform his duties normally, Harris must remain subdued on major issues. No matter how capable she is, she can only &#8220;speak silently&#8221; and try to avoid showing too much prominence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Second, Harris needs to &#8220;hide her skills.&#8221; Compared to cabinet members such as the Secretary of State, National Security Advisor, Secretary of Defense, and Secretary of the Treasury, Harris has previously been less involved in China-related affairs. By choosing to follow Biden&#8217;s policies toward China, she can avoid the pitfalls of &#8220;saying too much and making mistakes.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Although Harris currently acts as a &#8220;mouthpiece&#8221; for Biden&#8217;s China policy, if she were to be elected as the next President of the United States, it is very likely that she would retain the core elements of Biden&#8217;s approach toward China. However, to gain a deeper understanding of Harris&#8217;s stance and views on U.S.-China relations, we also analyzed her statements in public forums and media interviews using artificial intelligence models. This comprehensive analysis aims to provide a fuller perspective on her attitude and strategy regarding China policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">First, Harris advocates for strict controls on semiconductor exports and technology sharing to limit China&#8217;s technological development. She emphasized in her Democratic presidential nomination speech: &#8220;We must ensure that we lead the world in space and artificial intelligence, ensuring that the United States, not China, wins the competition of the 21st century.&#8221; Her statements suggest that if elected as the next U.S. President, she is likely to continue prioritizing technological competition as a key area in future China policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Second, in terms of economic policy, Harris has shown a different stance compared to former President Trump&#8217;s administration. She has criticized the trade war initiated by Trump multiple times, arguing that the over-reliance on raising tariffs not only failed to rebalance U.S.-China relations but also had a negative impact on the U.S. economy. She advocates for a &#8220;de-risking&#8221; approach rather than &#8220;decoupling,&#8221; suggesting a reduction in Western economies&#8217; dependence on China, especially in strategic industries. This position indicates that she may seek to maintain a certain level of economic interaction and cooperation with China in the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Third, Harris may take a tougher stance on human rights issues. She has co-sponsored a bipartisan bill with Republican Senator Marco Rubio aimed at promoting human rights in Hong Kong and sanctioning officials suspected of &#8220;undermining basic freedoms and autonomy in Hong Kong.&#8221; She is also one of the co-sponsors of the Uyghur Human Rights Policy Act, which authorizes the U.S. government to impose sanctions on foreign individuals and entities involved in alleged &#8220;human rights violations&#8221; in Xinjiang. These legislative actions may indicate that she is likely to adopt a more hardline position and measures regarding human rights issues in Hong Kong, sanctions on Hong Kong officials, and matters related to Xinjiang in the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At the same time, our analysis also found that among Harris&#8217;s top 50 most popular tweets (measured by a combination of likes, retweets, and comments), the topic of economic recovery and people&#8217;s well-being was frequently mentioned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Keywords such as &#8220;Work,&#8221; &#8220;Families,&#8221; &#8220;Communities,&#8221; and &#8220;Lives&#8221; appeared in her tweets with frequencies of 119, 84, 77, and 76 times, respectively (as shown in Figure 3), indicating Harris&#8217;s concern for economic recovery and the well-being of the people. In a tweet on August 17, she recalled her childhood experiences, stating, &#8220;When the cost of living goes up, it only makes things harder. When I am elected as President, I will make lowering costs and increasing economic security for all Americans my top priority.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The frequent appearance of these keywords in Harris&#8217;s tweets suggests that she aims to attract voters who are concerned about economic issues by focusing on topics such as job creation, supporting working families, improving community conditions, and enhancing quality of life. In her currently announced macroeconomic policies, she has also paid particular attention to the needs of the middle class and working-class individuals, emphasizing the fairness and inclusivity of economic policies\u2014such as providing mortgage assistance for first-time homebuyers, offering tax credits for new parents, and prohibiting grocery stores from price gouging to help curb inflation. She further plans to create &#8220;an opportunity economy where everyone has the chance to compete and succeed.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Although another presidential candidate, Trump, has criticized Harris&#8217;s concept of &#8220;opportunity economy&#8221; as having &#8220;communist&#8221; tendencies and believes it is merely a campaign strategy aimed at consolidating her support among specific voter groups rather than proposing broad and effective policy measures, we must recognize that the current economic difficulties in the United States and the resulting social conflicts are gradually intensifying.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If Harris were to be elected as the next President of the United States, she would face tremendous pressure to address domestic economic issues. The severity of the U.S. economic situation would prevent her from acting arbitrarily in formulating policies toward China. Therefore, when confronted with situations that need to be eased, she may opt for a more cautious and moderate approach to China, even if it involves temporary adjustments. Of course, such a possible temporary easing does not imply that the U.S. will not open new fronts with China in the economic and trade sectors in the future; instead, it will be based on weighing and considering domestic economic conditions and overall national interests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Against this backdrop, if Harris were elected President, she might pursue a more pragmatic and flexible economic policy toward China. Under the premise of ensuring domestic economic stability and social harmony, she may handle trade relations with China\u2014an important trading partner of the U.S.\u2014more effectively. This process will undoubtedly add new challenges and opportunities to the future trajectory of U.S.-China relations and will also be a significant test and adjustment for the global economic landscape.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In summary, when facing domestic and international economic conditions and challenges, Harris may adopt a more cautious and pragmatic policy orientation toward China to balance domestic and foreign interests and promote economic stability and sustainable development. This could mean that the U.S. will not recklessly undertake significant changes or risky actions in economic and trade relations with China in the short term, but will instead focus on stability and sustainability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Additionally, in our analysis using artificial intelligence sentiment analysis models on tweets related to Harris, we discovered an interesting phenomenon. From August 21, 2023, to August 20, 2024, there were approximately 8.45 million comments about Harris, with negative sentiment accounting for 34.6%, neutral sentiment for 44%, and positive sentiment for only 10.8%. The proportion of comments not involving sentiment was 10.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The high level of negative sentiment toward Harris among internet users mainly involves criticisms of her personal performance, expression abilities, personality traits, and past personal life. In some comments, certain male voters also questioned her identity as a female leader or expressed racial biases against an African American politician.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We also found that among the replies to Harris\u2019s tweets, female users accounted for 32%, higher than the 29% of female replies to President Biden\u2019s tweets. This indicates that, as a female candidate, Harris is able to attract the attention of female voters to a certain extent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To reduce the 34.6% negative sentiment from internet users, we noted that Harris has recently been using keywords favorable to appealing to voters, such as &#8220;Freedom&#8221; (119 times), &#8220;Women&#8221; (101 times), and &#8220;Reproductive Freedom&#8221; (91 times), which primarily revolve around voter freedom, health, and rights protection. In her tweets, Harris often appeals from a female perspective. For example, in a tweet on July 29, she publicly criticized former President Trump\u2019s ban and pledged: &#8220;Now, over a third of women of reproductive age in America live in states with Trump\u2019s abortion bans. When I become President of the United States, I will sign a law to restore and protect reproductive freedom in every state.&#8221; Harris has repeatedly expressed her stance on protecting women&#8217;s reproductive rights and criticized past administrations\u2019 policies in these areas. She calls for legislation to restore and protect these rights, indicating her attempt to position herself as a defender of women&#8217;s freedoms and rights in order to gain more support from female voters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Professor Leung Hoi Ming<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dean of Hainan University Belt and Road Research Institute<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u901a\u904e\u5927\u6578\u64da\u548c\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u6a21\u578b\u6316\u6398\u7f8e\u570b\u73fe\u4efb\u526f\u7e3d\u7d71\u3001\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u7e3d\u7d71\u5019\u9078\u4eba\u5361\u746a\u62c9\u00b7\u54c8\u91cc\u65af\uff08\u53e6\u8b6f\u8cc0\u9326\u9e97\uff0c\u4e0b\u7a31\u54c8\u91cc\u65af\uff09\u7684\u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u9ad4\uff0c\u4e26\u5c0d\u904e\u53bb1\u5e74\u7d04870\u842c\u689d\u76f8\u95dc\u4fe1\u606f\u5206\u6790\u53ef\u767c\u73fe\uff0c\u54c8\u91cc\u65af\u523b\u610f\u5c0d\u7576\u524d\u706b\u71b1\u7684\u4e2d\u7f8e\u95dc\u4fc2\u8b70\u984c\u9032\u884c\u51b7\u8655\u7406\u3002\u54c8\u91cc\u65af\u73fe\u5df2\u62cb\u51fa\u300c\u6a5f\u6703\u7d93\u6fdf\u300d\u7684\u5b8f\u89c0\u8abf\u63a7\u7d93\u6fdf\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u5e0c\u671b\u52a9\u529b\u7f8e\u570b\u4e2d\u7522\u548c\u632f\u8208\u7d93\u6fdf\uff0c\u6b64\u8209\u6216\u8a31\u610f\u5473\u8457\u5979\u672a\u4f86\u5982\u7576\u9078\uff0c\u66ab\u4e0d\u6703\u8207\u4e2d\u570b\u5728\u7d93\u8cbf\u9818\u57df\u958b\u95e2\u65b0\u6230\u7dda\u3002 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