{"id":248,"date":"2025-02-27T13:57:30","date_gmt":"2025-02-27T05:57:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/jefs.ch\/?p=248"},"modified":"2025-03-11T16:29:02","modified_gmt":"2025-03-11T08:29:02","slug":"interpreting-the-u-s-ukraine-agreement-the-devil-is-in-the-details","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/jefs.ch\/?p=248","title":{"rendered":"Interpreting the U.S.-Ukraine Agreement: The Devil is in the Details"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

On February 26, Ukrainian media first disclosed the full text of the U.S.-Ukraine “Minerals for Security” agreement, which consists of 11 articles. The core of the agreement is the establishment of a joint fund between the two countries, primarily funded by revenues generated from the monetization of Ukraine’s mineral resources. This fund will be jointly managed by both the U.S. and Ukraine, aiming to maximize U.S. economic interests and support Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Ukraine claims that the latest version of the agreement removes terms unfavorable to them compared to the initial draft. Originally, Trump demanded that Ukraine use half of its mineral revenues to repay a “debt” of $500 billion to the U.S., requiring Ukraine to contribute $500 billion to the joint fund. However, Ukraine believes that U.S. military and financial aid amounts to just over $110 billion, which includes grants that cannot be counted as debt. The new agreement ultimately removed this clause, relieving Ukraine of the $500 billion contribution, making it feel as though it had struck a significant deal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The new agreement stipulates that Ukraine must contribute half of the revenues from mineral, oil, gas development, and port infrastructure to the jointly established fund. The terms of U.S. contributions will be negotiated immediately between the two countries’ economic departments, culminating in the signing of the “Fund Agreement.” The framework agreement states: \u201cThe maximum proportion of fund equity and financial interests held by the U.S. government and the decision-making authority of U.S. representatives will be determined within the limits allowed by applicable law\u201d; \u201cJoint ownership will consider the actual contributions of the participants. The fund will be jointly managed by representatives of the Ukrainian and U.S. governments.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding Zelensky’s concerns about security guarantees, the U.S. agreed to include “U.S. support for Ukraine’s efforts for security guarantees and lasting peace,” although further guarantees remain vague. Trump clearly stated in the first Cabinet meeting on February 25, \u201cI will not provide more security guarantees,\u201d emphasizing that “this needs to be left to Europe.” This succinctly reflects Trump\u2019s mindset, as he particularly stressed, \u201cForget about NATO, Ukraine.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the framework agreement is broad, the subsequent negotiations for the “Fund Agreement” will impose further constraints on Ukraine. Since it is a fund, it involves contribution ratios. There is no doubt that Ukraine will bear the larger share, as the agreement specifies that Ukraine must contribute half of its resource income to the fund, which clearly serves as “compensation” to the U.S. The agreement states: \u201cThe Ukrainian government will contribute 50% of the monetized revenue from all future related natural resource assets (whether directly or indirectly owned by the Ukrainian government) to the fund, which includes minerals, hydrocarbons, oil, gas, and other extractable materials, as well as other infrastructure related to natural resource assets (such as LNG terminals and port infrastructure).\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the U.S. contribution, the agreement clearly states, \u201cThe U.S. has provided substantial financial and material aid to Ukraine.\u201d Trump claims that U.S. aid amounts to no less than $350 billion, while Ukraine acknowledges over $110 billion. Trump repeatedly emphasizes the need to \u201crecoup taxpayer money,\u201d and the U.S. Treasury likely will not go against Trump’s wishes; thus, the majority of that $110 billion will likely be counted as equity in the fund, commonly referred to as the U.S. holding \u201cdry shares\u201d in the new fund.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since it is a fund, issues of reinvestment and dividends will arise. The U.S. clearly views Ukraine\u2019s key minerals as a \u201cgoose that lays golden eggs.\u201d Some media even speculate that Ukraine does not have that many mineral resources, suggesting that Zelensky has painted an overly optimistic picture for the U.S. Regardless of the actual mineral availability, geography textbooks have long made it clear, and the U.S. Cabinet is filled with economic elites and hedge fund leaders who are not easily fooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to note that the U.S.-Ukraine framework agreement is highly exclusive. The agreement states: \u201cEnsure that those countries and other parties that take adverse actions against Ukraine in the conflict will not benefit from the reconstruction after Ukraine achieves lasting peace.\u201d In other words, countries deemed hostile by Ukraine will not be able to participate in future economic cooperation with Ukraine. Furthermore, the agreement stipulates that any responsibilities and obligations arising from Ukraine’s potential EU membership cannot jeopardize the normal operation of the fund; funds cannot be used to settle debts from disputes with other countries. This agreement essentially locks in U.S. economic gains, making it difficult for other countries to reclaim their debts from Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic sovereignty is an important component of national sovereignty, and key minerals are a primary source of income for sovereign nations. With half of Ukraine’s future revenues from these resources required to be paid into the so-called joint fund, this effectively signals the loss of Ukraine’s economic sovereignty. On the surface, the fund is co-managed by both countries, but given the current asymmetry in power between the U.S. and Ukraine, how much say will Ukraine actually have?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On February 26, Zelensky threatened that if the U.S. did not provide security guarantees, he might not go to Washington to sign the agreement on Friday. Before he finished speaking, Trump announced that Zelensky had agreed to come to the U.S. to sign. Zelensky intended to make some tough statements for European and domestic audiences, but hours later, Trump publicly contradicted him, leaving Zelensky in a difficult position.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this negotiation between the U.S. and Ukraine, Trump employed the old tactic of “maximum pressure,” demanding $500 billion from Ukraine. After the U.S. made some concessions, Ukraine joyfully celebrated what it perceived as a \u201chuge concession\u201d from the U.S., turning this tragic episode of \u201cland for protection\u201d into a comedy. Whose tragedy is this, after all?

DW Zhou \/ Chief Editor TaKungPao Hong Kong<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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On February 26, Ukrainian media first disclosed the full text of the U.S.-Ukraine “Minerals for Security” agreement, which consists of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":249,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[25,6,33,26],"tags":[48,44,17,49],"class_list":["post-248","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-english","category-europe","category-politics","category-26","tag-dw-zhou","tag-ukraine","tag-usa","tag-49"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/jefs.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/248","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/jefs.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/jefs.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/jefs.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/jefs.ch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=248"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"http:\/\/jefs.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/248\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":263,"href":"http:\/\/jefs.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/248\/revisions\/263"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/jefs.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/249"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/jefs.ch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=248"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/jefs.ch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=248"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/jefs.ch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=248"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}