Trump was playing golf at his private golf course in Florida at 1:30pm on Sept 15th when the sound of gunfire interrupted his game with close friends. Trump was quickly thrown to the ground by nearby Secret Service agents and then pushed into an armored vehicle, leaving the scene. This was the second assassination attempt on Trump since the July 13 incident when he was attacked during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. In the previous attack, a bullet grazed Trump’s right ear, but this time he was unharmed. The shooter didn’t even have the opportunity to aim and fire, as sharp-eyed agents detected him in time, which relieved political leaders from both parties in the United States.
In just 62 days, Trump had faced two assassination attempts, highlighting the increasing political violence in the U.S. amid a backdrop of political polarization, with political assassinations becoming a more common trend, posing unprecedented challenges to the security of political figures. Unlike the assassination attempt in Butler, this time the suspect was quickly apprehended, leaving behind living witnesses and a wealth of physical evidence. The previous shooter, Crooks, was a 20-year-old caregiver working in a nursing home and was shot dead by agents at the scene. Investigators found no motive for the assassination attempt on Trump on his computer; the only clue was that he was registered as a Republican but had donated to Democrats, leading to the conclusion that he was an anti-Trump supporter.
The shooter apprehended in Florida was named Ryan Wesley Routh born in 1966, from North Carolina, who moved to Hawaii in 2017. He was an online activist and had been interviewed by The New York Times in 2023. He had a criminal record, with charges in North Carolina including drug possession, driving without a license, expired vehicle inspection, driving an uninsured vehicle, and possession of a weapon of mass destruction. A local newspaper reported in 2002 that Routh had a three-hour standoff with police in his office after a traffic accident. Routh’s LinkedIn profile indicated that he founded another construction company in Hawaii in 2017 to build shelters for the homeless. Following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Routh wrote on social media, “I would fly to Krakow to volunteer at the Ukrainian border and fight to the death.”
Routh did not succeed in his attempt this time, thanks to the enhanced security measures by the Secret Service for former President Trump. When Trump was playing the fifth hole, agents went to the sixth hole to check the surroundings and discovered a gun barrel protruding from the fence on the side of the course near the road, about 400 meters from Trump. The agents fired four shots at the shooter, who quickly fled. Passersby captured his license plate number, and after Routh had fled for several dozen kilometers, he was arrested by police without resistance. According to police, a weapon resembling an AK-47 with a scope was left at the scene, and two backpacks and a GoPro camera were hanging on the fence of the golf course. Investigators stated that the suspect appeared to have planned to record his attack on the former president.
Two hours after the shooting, Trump returned to Mar-a-Lago. He issued a statement saying, “I am Trump. Do not be afraid! I am safe, and no one was injured. Thank God! However, there are some people in this world who will stop us at all costs. I will not stop fighting for you. I will never surrender! I will always love you. Through our unity, we will make America great again!” Like the last attack, Trump hoped to use this assassination attempt to call for donations from his supporters. However, this incident did not generate as much sensationalism as the last one, and its political impact seemed to be diminishing. It remains to be seen how Trump’s campaign team will utilize this incident.
Speaker Johnson described Trump as “unstoppable”; his supporters once again portrayed him as “the chosen one.” The July 13 shooting had put Trump in the spotlight, but his aura was beginning to fade. After his first debate with Harris on September 10, Harris received $47 million in donations within 24 hours, indicating that her fundraising ability far exceeded Trump’s. Harris tasted success from this debate and hoped to face Trump again, but Trump had publicly stated he would not agree, unwilling to give Harris another platform. Fox News was still pushing for Trump to engage in another debate with Harris, hoping the former president would change his mind.
The campaign funds that Trump raises not only need to be used for the election but also a significant portion is intended to cover various legal fees. The stock lock-up period for Trump’s media technology group is set to expire on September 19, raising concerns among shareholders that Trump might sell off shares in large quantities to raise much-needed funds. Consequently, the company’s stock price has recently seen significant fluctuations. On September 13, Trump stated, “I have no plans to sell shares in this company in the near future,” which caused the market to react positively, leading to a 30% surge in stock prices. However, compared to its peak, the stock has already halved, and some market participants worry about how long Trump’s commitment can last. One thing is clear: the stock price of this company has become an important barometer for Trump’s chances in the election.
Harris, buoyed by her “victory” in the televised debate and supported by pop superstar Taylor Swift, saw her national approval rating rise by at least one percentage point. Trump posted on his social media platform, “I hate Swift,” indicating that Swift had significantly affected him. However, in the seven swing states, Trump still holds a slight advantage. According to the latest data from several relatively reliable polling organizations in the U.S., the two candidates are nearly tied in the crucial state of Pennsylvania. In Michigan and Wisconsin, Harris has a slight edge, but Trump is slightly leading in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona. As mail-in voting across the U.S. begins on September 20, the number of independent voters will decrease. The focus will now be on the voter turnout of both parties. Harris stated that the Democrats are still at a disadvantage, and the greatest risk is losing to “the couch,” urging her supporters not to stay home but to vote actively.
Since the assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania, the Secret Service has been racking their brains over Trump’s security. Golf courses have always been regarded as a significant vulnerability because they are open spaces, and moving from one hole to another provides predictable timing, which poses a massive risk for security. Agents close to Trump indicated that in Florida, Trump has a habit of playing golf every day. Moreover, Trump owns a Boeing 757, which draws special attention, serving as a live advertisement for his travels. This undoubtedly provided ample information for Routh to ambush near the bushes by the golf course fence.
From the information disclosed so far, Routh’s motive for the assassination appears to be largely related to the Ukraine war. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, he has been an ardent supporter of Ukraine, while Trump has expressed intentions to end the war, which clearly conflicts with Routh’s values. In 2023, Routh told The New York Times that he traveled to Ukraine after the Russian invasion and sought to recruit Afghan soldiers to fight there. He claimed to be too old and lacking military experience but listed hundreds of Afghan individuals located in Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, whom he wanted to find a way to send to Ukraine. He even mentioned bribing corrupt officials, forging passports, and doing whatever it takes to get them to Ukraine. Once, he talked about arranging a U.S. military transport plane to carry willing Afghan refugees from Iraq to the front lines. Information from Amazon shows that Laws wrote a 291-page book last year, priced at $2.99, detailing his disillusionment with Ukraine, in which he claimed Ukraine “cannot win” and has “fatal flaws in democracy,” including bloody photos of decapitations and dead children.
Trump’s second assassination attempt will undoubtedly stir up a new wave of “conspiracy theories” in American society. The bipartisan House committee investigating presidential assassination attempts has called for an investigation into the new assassination incident. Florida Governor DeSantis announced that an independent investigative committee will be established, reflecting significant distrust of the Biden administration. New York Representative Stefanik also issued a statement: “We must ask ourselves why an assassin was able to get so close to President Trump again.” “The horrific assassination attempt in Pennsylvania remains unanswered; we hope for a clear explanation of what happened in Florida.” The political situation in the U.S. is so tense, with party voters becoming increasingly polarized. After the second assassination attempt, the media spotlight shifted from Harris back to Trump, a chance that the Republican Party will certainly not miss, further increasing the pressure on the ruling Democratic government regarding security failures. Trump has escaped multiple assassination attempts; will Harris’ sense of security also decrease significantly?
DW Zhou Dagongbao Sept 16th (translated by JEFS)
特朗普躲過了初一，也逃過了十五
美國當地時間9月15日（周日）下午 1時30分許，特朗普正在佛羅里達自家的高爾夫球場打高爾夫，但砰砰的槍聲打斷了他與密友的比賽，特朗普迅速被身邊的特工按倒在地，隨後被推上一輛裝甲車，離開了現場。
這是繼7月13日特朗普在賓州巴特勒鎮舉行群眾集會遭到暗殺以來的第二次。上一次特朗普的右耳被子彈打傷，而這一次安然無恙，槍手連瞄准及開槍的機會都沒撈到，就被眼尖的特工及時發現，也讓美國兩黨的政治大佬們松了一口氣。
在短短的62天里，特朗普遭到兩次暗殺，凸顯了在政治極化的大背景下，美國的政治暴力與日增，政治暗殺正呈現常態化的趨勢，政治人物的安保工作面臨著前所未有的挑戰。
與巴特勒鎮的暗殺情況不同的是，這一次嫌犯迅速落網，並留下了活口及大量的物證。上一次的槍手克魯克斯是在老人護理院工作的20歲護工，第一時間就被特工擊斃。在他的電腦里搜了半天，也找不到刺殺特朗普的動機。唯一的線索是他登記為共和黨人，但曾向民主黨人捐過款，從而認定他是一名反特朗普者。
這一次在佛羅里達被捕的槍手名叫勞斯，生於1966年，來自北卡羅萊納州，於2017年搬到夏威夷居住。他是一名網絡活躍分子，2023年《紐約時報》曾對他進行過採訪。此人有犯罪前科，他當年在北卡被捕的罪名包括持有毒品、無證駕駛、年檢過期和無保險駕駛車輛以及持有大規模殺傷性器。當地一家報紙2002 年報道稱，勞斯在一次交通事故後，在自己的公司辦公室與警方對峙了三個小時。勞斯的領英頁面顯示，2017年他在夏威夷成立了另一家建築公司，為無家可歸者建造簡易房。2022 年俄烏衝突發生以後，勞斯在社交平台上寫道：“我願意飛往克拉科夫，去烏克蘭邊境當志願者，戰鬥至死。”
勞斯這一次沒有得逞，得益於特勤局加強了對前總統特朗普的安全保護。在特朗普打到第五個洞時，特工先到第六個洞口察看周邊情況，發現球場靠馬路一側的護欄邊，伸出了一個槍管，距離特朗普也就400米左右。於是特工向其連開四槍，勞斯迅速逃離，路人拍下了他的車號，在勞斯逃了數十公里之後，被警察抓捕，沒有作任何反抗。據警方透露，現場留下類似AK-47 型武器，配有瞄准鏡，此外，在球場護欄上還掛著兩個背包和一台 GoPro 視頻錄制設備。調查人員稱，嫌疑犯似乎計劃錄制他對前總統的襲擊。
槍擊發生之後的兩個小時，特朗普回到了海湖莊園。特朗普發表聲明稱：“我是特朗普。不要害怕！我很安全，沒有人受傷。感謝上帝！但是，這個世界上有些人會不惜一切代價阻止我們。我不會停止為你們而戰。我永遠不會投降！我會永遠愛你們。通過我們的團結，我們將讓美國再次偉大！”
像上次遇襲一樣，特朗普希望通過這起暗殺未遂事件，呼籲支持者為其捐款。但顯然這起事件的轟動性不如上一次，其政治效應呈遞減之勢。特朗普的競選團隊將如何利用此次事件還需觀察。眾議長約翰遜稱特朗普“勢不可當”；他的支持者再次將他塑造成“天選之子”。
7月13日的槍擊讓特朗普如日中天，但他的光環正在消退。9月10日他與哈里斯的首場辯論之後，哈里斯在24小時之內收到了 4700萬美元捐款，可見哈里斯的籌款能力遠超特朗普。哈里斯從這場辯論中嘗到了甜頭，希望與特朗普再來一場，但特朗普已公開表示拒絕，不願再給哈里斯搭台。福克斯電視台還不死心，不斷遊說特朗普團隊與哈里斯再戰一場，期待這位前總統能改變主意。
特朗普募來的競選資金不僅要用於大選，而且相當一部分要用來繳納各種官司的律師費。特朗普旗下的媒體科技集團公司股票禁售期將於9月19日到期，股民們擔心特朗普屆時會大規模拋售，以籌集急需的資金。為此這家公司的股價最近急劇動蕩。特朗普9月13日發表談話稱，“近期沒有出售這家公司股票的打算”，市場聞聲大振，股價迅速飆升30%。不過與高峰期相比，這家公司的股票早已腰斬，一些市場人士擔心，特朗普的承諾能持續多久仍是未知數。不過，有一點非常清楚，這家公司的股價成了特朗普大選勝率的重要晴雨表。哈里斯借著電視辯論的“勝利”以及歌壇巨星斯威夫特的加持，全國民意支持率至少拉升了一個百分點。特朗普在自家社交平台發文稱，“我憎恨斯威夫特。”可見斯威夫特對特朗普傷害不輕。不過，從七個搖擺州的情況來看，特朗普還擁有微弱的優勢。據美國幾家相對可靠的民調機構最新數據顯示，在最關鍵的賓夕法尼亞州，兩位候選人基本打平。在密歇根、威斯康星州，哈里斯稍稍佔優，但在北卡、佐治亞、亞利桑那州，特朗普略微領先。隨著美國郵寄投票於9月20日全面展開，美國的中間選民將越來越少。接下來就要看兩黨各自的投票率。哈里斯表示，民主黨現在仍處於弱勢，最大的可能就是輸給“沙發”，呼籲她的支持者們不能待在家中，而是要積極投票。
自賓州巴特勒鎮發生暗殺事件以來，特勤局一直為特朗普安保大費腦筋。而高爾夫球場一直被視為一大弱點，因為高爾夫球場是開放場地，從一個球洞移動到另一個洞也有時間的可預測性，這對安保工作是巨大的風險。特朗普身邊特工表示，在佛羅里達，特朗普有每天打高爾夫球的習慣。更何況特朗普擁有波音757飛機，格外引人注目，這無疑是特朗普行程的活廣告。從而為勞斯提前埋伏於球場圍欄邊的灌木叢提供了足夠的信息支持。
從目前披露的情況看，勞斯的暗殺動機很大程度上與烏克蘭戰爭有關。自俄烏衝突發生以來，他是一位狂熱的烏克蘭支持者，而特朗普有意終止這場戰爭，顯然不符合勞斯的價值觀。2023 年，勞斯接受《紐約時報》採訪時表示，他在俄羅斯入侵後前往烏克蘭，並希望招募阿富汗士兵去那裡作戰。他稱自己年紀太大，也沒有軍事經驗，但列出了一份名單，上麵包括數百名阿富汗人，分布在伊朗、巴基斯坦和阿富汗等地，他想通過某種方式將這些人送往烏克蘭。他甚至談到了收買腐敗官員、偽造護照以及不惜一切代價將他們送到烏克蘭。有一次，他提到安排一架美國軍用運輸機將願意參戰的阿富汗難民從伊拉克運送到前線。
亞馬遜網站的信息顯示，勞斯去年寫了一本 291 頁的書，售價 2.99 美元，講述他對烏克蘭的幻滅感，他在書中聲稱，烏克蘭 “無法取勝”，存在著“民主的致命缺陷”，其中包含斬首、死去的孩子等血淋淋照片。
特朗普第二次遇刺，無疑會激起美國社會新一輪的“陰謀論”。美國眾議院兩黨前總統被刺調查委員會已要求對新一起暗殺事件展開調查。佛羅里達州州長德桑蒂斯表示，將成立獨立的調查委員會，顯示出對拜登政府的極不信任。紐約州眾議員斯特凡尼克也發表聲明：“我們必須捫心自問，為什麼一名刺客能再次如此接近特朗普總統？”“賓夕法尼亞州發生的可怕刺殺事件仍未得到答案，我們希望佛羅里達州發生的事情能得到明確的解釋。”
美國大選形勢如此膠著，兩黨選民變得勢不兩立。第二起暗殺事件之後，媒體的聚光燈好不容易從哈里斯轉到特朗普身上，這個機會共和黨當然不會放過，執政的民主黨政府再一次承受安保不力的巨大壓力。特朗普逃過了一次次追殺，哈里斯的安全感是不是也會下降不少呢？
周德武 大公報 公評世界 9月16日
